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Now onto this week’s article:

Have you heard of the “Lindy Effect”?

No? Great, you are going to learn today.

The Lindy Effect suggests that the longer something non-perishable has existed (i.e ideas, practices, books, tools, and technology), the more likely it is to survive in the future. This is because long-standing items have already overcome numerous challenges, competition, and changes in the world, indicating inherent qualities or value that explains their persistence. Therefore, we can expect them to remain valuable and relevant in the future.

Here's an example:

Tea is a prime example of the Lindy Effect. The earliest physical evidence of tea consumption dates back to 2nd Century BC China, just after the time of Cleopatra for reference. This demonstrates that humans have been consuming and valuing tea for over 2,000 years, leading us to reasonably believe that people will continue drinking tea for another millennium. Tea has withstood the test of time and consistently received human appreciation, making its future consumption highly likely.

If I have achieved my intended purpose, this explanation and example provided you with something to grasp and sparked your own examples.

Examples such as: art, writing, reading/books, physical activity/walking, socialization/tribes/collaboration, gold/currency, spending time in nature, and sleep. Throughout history, humans have always engaged in and valued these activities, leading me to confidently conclude that they are and will be valuable to human existence, both in my lifetime and well into the future. Put simply, there must be something to them. Virtually every human has considered these things valuable.

Books, like tea, serve as another excellent example. Humans have been reading and learning from books for nearly as long as they have been drinking tea. Further, this is not only just the concept of books but certain books themselves exhibit strong “Lindy” characteristics. These books have been read, recommended, and cherished by people for centuries, contributing to the human experience. Examples that come to mind include the Bible, the Quran, The Odyssey, and Meditations by Marcus Aurelius. These timeless works have been deemed worthy of reading for centuries, suggesting a profound reason behind their popularity and indicating that they will continue to be read in the future.

Sidebar: I was recently introduced to and met up with the founder of Ageless Literature, a dealer of rare, classic, and timeless literature. Billy has an incredible story and offers truly Lindy literature worth reading and possessing. You can explore his collection here: https://agelessliterature.com/

Back to the piece — the Lindy Effect provides a solid foundation for determining what is beneficial for humans and what has consistently made people feel better, smarter, happier, and healthier throughout centuries. If you aspire to be these things, it would be advantageous to engage in activities that have stood the test of time, as they likely hold something valuable. Ex., If your great grandparents didn’t eat it, don’t eat it.

So, what are some things that fail the Lindy test? Social media/TikTok, seed oils, packaged foods, and predominantly indoor & sedentary lifestyles are examples of relatively new phenomena that do not quite pass the test. Although they are part of our lives and some are tools, teetering on the edge of being lindy, its harder to tell their value to the human experience. I would argue that investing your time in reading a timeless piece of literature offers a much better return on investment than endlessly scrolling through peoples random thoughts and videos online.

The Lindy Effect urges us to recognize the value of ideas, technologies, and cultural practices that have withstood the test of time. They are more likely to endure and continue shaping our lives and the lives of future generations. It serves as an effective risk management tool, particularly when deciding where to invest our time and attention.

However, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb would want me to emphasize, past performance does not guarantee future results. Also, innovations and new technologies & information can be valuable and some will withstand the test of time. Regardless, the Lindy Effect remains one of the most valuable tools I have encountered for discerning what is valuable now and what will be valued in the future.

Practical Takeaway: Go for more walks and take a moment to visit agelessliterature.com and choose a piece of timeless literature to read.

G